Poll: Perdue widens lead; Kingston takes 2nd place in tight batt - FOX 10 News | myfoxphoenix.com

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Poll: Perdue widens lead; Kingston takes 2nd place in tight battle with Handel

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ATLANTA, Ga. - New InsiderAdvantage/Fox5/Morris News “SuperPoll”: Perdue Widens Lead; Kingston Takes Second Place in Tight Battle with Handel

An InsiderAdvantage/Fox5/Morris News “SuperPoll” of 1,182 likely voters in the May 20 Republican U.S. Senate primary was conducted by phone and online May 12-14. The data have been weighted for age, race and gender. The poll shows a tight race for the likely runoff. The results are:

David Perdue: 27%

Jack Kingston: 19%

Karen Handel: 17%

Paul Broun: 10%

Phil Gingrey: 9%

Other: 4%

Undecided: 14%

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8% and a confidence level of 95%.

InsiderAdvantage CEO/Fox5 Political Analyst Matt Towery:

“We are closing in on what appears likely to be a very weak, or low-voter-turnout primary on May 20. We are now thinking that the actual vote on Tuesday could be at least 100,000 votes fewer than it was in the GOP primary of 2010, which was our last midterm and gubernatorial cycle. This makes the race for second place one that could be decided by a difference of a few thousand votes or even fewer.

“For the moment, Jack Kingston seems to have momentum on his side. As the likely vote appears to be skewing older, both Kingston and David Perdue benefit and pick up more votes. But what the candidates do between Thursday and Sunday night will determine the actual order of finish.

“Karen Handel clearly has the most targeted get-out-the-vote effort. Her use of social media and automated phone calls to her base could give her an extra point or two in the final vote count. Kingston has turned around his TV ad campaign, running stronger ads and taking on Perdue. And Perdue is now attacking Kingston as well.

“The issue is that of whether the attack ads between Kingston and Perdue will turn this into a ‘two-person race’ in the minds of voters, or whether these two candidates will hurt each other, with Handel picking up their lost votes.

“Kingston must have a sophisticated, positive ad for metro-Atlanta TV this weekend, and he must implement a high-speed get-out-the-vote program. Perdue must cling to his lead. He has to find a way to turn out his vote, which is based more on advertising than on a grassroots organization. Finally, Handel must go on metro-Atlanta TV with a positive ad and continue her aggressive social media and automated phone-voter turnout effort.

“If all three candidates do the things they ought to be doing, the vote should be very close —particularly for the coveted second place.

“Finally, this low voter interest does not bode well for the Republicans in November. The excitement and surge from the tea party fervor of 2010 has all but disappeared in most areas of the state and the percent of Georgians who identify themselves with the GOP is dropping.

                                                                Methodology

Target Population

Likely 2014 Republican primary voters in Georgia

Sampling Method

The survey uses a blended sample, mixed mode.

IVR: Registered voters in Georgia were selected randomly and surveyed on the evenings of May 12-14, 2014 using an interactive voice response system.

Online: registered voters were selected randomly and surveyed using an identical poll May 12-14.

Integration & Weighting

The samples were integrated in such a way as to preserve a 2:1 ratio of IVR:online respondents.

The poll was weighted for age, race, and gender according to 2010 voter data (from GA Secretary of State) and US census data.

Number of Respondents

1182

(IVR: 788)

(Online: 394)

Margin of Error

±2.85% (95% confidence)

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