The Spillover Effect of Mexico Violence

PHOENIX - A massacre just 12 miles from the Arizona border is raising new fears that drug violence in Mexico will spill over to the U.S. But are those fears valid?

The shootout between rival Mexican gangs happened north of Hermosillo, in the Mexican state of Sonora. 21 people were killed.

It has Arizonans asking, are we at risk?

According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and Attorney General Terry Goddard, the violence inside Mexico is not putting people at risk in Arizona.

They say violence in Arizona is actually down, and that includes the counties along the Mexican border.

Professor Llewellyn Howell at Thunderbird School of Global Mgmt says that members of the public are misinformed on the so-called crime wave from Mexico.

"They are misinformed, that is all I can tell you. They do not understand what is going on. I have heard Governor Brewer she is totally wrong," he says.

Despite the drop houses, kidnappings, and immigrants victimized by human smugglers, Phoenix's murder rate is way down. According to FBI statistics, in 2008, there were 167 murders in Phoenix. In 2009, there were 122. And the same trend goes for other Arizona cities.

If this wave of violence has been taking place almost exclusively on the Mexican side of the border rather than the American side, why is that?

"Think about it. Drug cartels are in trade for one reason -- to make profit, a lot of money, and they always choose the path of least resistance," says Ramona Sanchez with the DEA.

Meaning, that drug criminals moving through Arizona want to go through unnoticed, rather than leave a path of destruction in their wake.

Attorney General Terry Goddard says that illegal immigrants seeking jobs and new lives should not be the focus of crime fighting efforts. He says authorities should be going after the big drug operations.

"That is a reason to focus border security efforts on investigating cartels in Mexico and U.S., because they are in both places, and dismantling their command and control structure. That is the best way to secure the border," says Goddard.

A spokesman for Gov. Brewer responds, Arizona's new immigration law is not meant to be a solution for border violence but just another tool in the state's toolbox.